“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay

Rather than another blog post that predicts flying cars or the end of the world in 2020, I’ve put together a few thoughts on what’s to come in the next 10 years.

Simple observations on trends, wishful thinking’s, and in many case, the logical next step on what’s to come.

On Technology

- Before we get to “Cloud Computing”, we will see the rise or “consumerization” of the Data Center: i.e. I will be able to transfer MY 1TB plus of RAW photography and 200GB of audio (which most consumer could have in time) with ease to the Cloud. (Note: Think S3 “for the rest of us”)

- The Desktop GUI Files and Folders metaphor will have to evolve. Files and folders work great when you have hundreds or even thousands of files, but the metaphor becomes pretty pointless when you are tasked to manage millions of digital records. This is a big challenge we have to solve in the next decade.

- Call it Web 3.0 if you like. With so many standalone Web Services out there, it’s still pretty hard for non-tech people to build meaningful digital content (let alone business) on the Web. In the coming decade, we should be able to figure out a way to tide all these standalone services together into something much more meaningful. (Note: Think today’s 10 person Web 2.0 startup can be built by 1 person in the next decade simply buy gluing together existing services on the Web)

On Business and Economy

- The rise of micro / digital transaction from the Digital World into the Real World. In the next decade, it should get much easier to paying someone for goods and services. Think of it as P2P economy. i.e. I can pay the kid down the street to mow the lawn via digital credit. Why this is important you ask? The less friction it is to any form of transaction, the better it is for the commerce right?

- Another financial bubble in the next decade will be driven by either Clean Tech or Biotech. We had the boom and bust in tech, real estate, and finance sectors in the last 20 years. The new cycle is bound to happen in those two industries next – with the requirement of some form of technical break though takes place.

On Media and Entertainment

- Traditional live TV will completed moving to the Web. After all, you living room TV is just a monitor. (Note: Think Hulu for ALL TV content but with live broadcast)

On Design

- Design and Fashion will finally move away from the Neo-grunge into something much more Baroque like or other style that’s focus on individual craftsmanship. (Note: Think Etsy, and TAD Gear)

“”I am worried about YouTube junk coming into Flickr,” he said. “But [video] is a good idea.”

Video is a great idea indeed.

Two of the key anti Flickr Video arguments are (and my counter argument follows):

• Flickr is for photography only. (Me: Flickr over the years been allowing illustration upload. Those aren’t photos. Flickr, as a tool, actually started out as a part of MMORPG which later turn into a chatroom, then the current format. So a “photo site” is actually an after thought)
• Flickr will turn into YouTube. (Me: No, it will not. We have Vimeo for that role, or try to anyway.)

Initially, I feel a little unsure on how Flickr will implement their video user interface, and I am glad to report their video UI is so underwhelm that it should work for both video and non-video users.

In my Flickr contacts, I’ve already start seeing amazing creatives video content from many. In fact some of them are just “strangers” that I so happen to like their pictures over the years. It’s actually very interesting suddenly start seeing their pictures  “come alive”.

Finally, it’s actually sadden me to see the “creative types” on Flickr can be so conservative and close minded on what Flickr is, should, or can be. Shouldn’t the creative type usually the most opened minded to change and new ways of doing things?

Time to update your browser and save the developers.

Good times.

Web 2.0 is:
Search
RSS
Friendster (type connection)
Flickr
XSLT
FireFox
Flash/Flex
Mobile
SVG
Local/Google Earth

Random thought of the day…